Archives‎ > ‎

Bolton & Pence scuttle Talks by threatening North Korea with the Libya precedent

From Peter Myers..

(1) North Korea calls Pence a "political dummy" for comparing North Korea to Libya

(2) The more the U.S. said 'Libya,' the angrier North Korea got - WaPo

(3) Pence: "this will only end like the Libya Model ended if Kim Jong-un doesn't make a deal"

(4) Bolton sabotaged North Korea Talks; demanded 'de-nuclearization' or NK would follow the 'Libya model'

(5) Bolton’s Ridiculous Libya ‘Model’ for North Korea

(6) Bolton on North Korea: "We have very much in mind the Libya model"

 

(1) North Korea calls Pence a "political dummy" for comparing North Korea to Libya

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-25/donald-trump-cancels-us-north-korea-summit/9797806

Donald Trump cancels US-North Korea summit, says Singapore meeting would be 'inappropriate at this time'

US President Donald Trump has written a letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un saying their planned summit in Singapore next month is cancelled. [...]

Earlier in the day, North Korea repeated a threat to pull out of the unprecedented summit with Mr Trump next month and warned it was prepared for a nuclear showdown with Washington if necessary.

In a statement released by North Korean media, Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui had called US Vice President Mike Pence a "political dummy" for comparing North Korea — a "nuclear weapons state" — to Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi gave up his unfinished nuclear development programme, only to be later killed by NATO-backed fighters.

In his letter, Mr Trump said Mr Kim should not "hesitate to call me or write" if he changed his mind about their now-cancelled summit. [...]

 

(2) The more the U.S. said 'Libya,' the angrier North Korea got - WaPo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/world/wp/2018/05/24/the-more-pence-and-trump-say-Libya-the-angrier-north-korea-gets/?noredirect=on

How Kim-Trump tensions escalated: The more the U.S. said ‘Libya,’ the angrier North Korea got

By Rick Noack

May 24 at 10:35 AM

If you’re serious about peace and denuclearization, maybe don’t mention Libya. That appeared to be the message North Korea had for the United States once again on Thursday when Pyongyang lashed out at Vice President Pence, calling him a “political dummy” and threatening a “nuclear-to-nuclear showdown,” hours before Trump canceled an upcoming denuclearization summit in Singapore scheduled for June 12, citing “open hostility” by North Korea.

“As a person involved in the U.S. affairs, I cannot suppress my surprise at such ignorant and stupid remarks gushing out from the mouth of the U.S. vice president,” Choe Son Hui, a North Korean vice foreign minister, had said hours earlier.

The remarks came after Pence brought up Libya as an example of North Korea’s possible fate in a Fox News interview Monday, even though similar comments by Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, and Trump himself had previously drawn ire in Pyongyang.

“As the president made clear, this will only end like the Libyan model ended if Kim Jong Un doesn’t make a deal,” Pence told Fox News. Using almost the same words, Trump stressed last week that the example of Libya showed “what will take place if we don’t make a deal.”

Both were referring to the capture and killing of former Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi by rebel forces in 2011. The references were apparently meant as a warning to North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

But a closer look at history reveals that Libya may be the worst example Pence or Trump could have chosen — and could have contributed to the renewed escalation of tensions in recent days. The North African nation chose to voluntarily give up its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and to comply with Western conditions — but the United States and Europe later helped topple the Gaddafi regime anyway. It’s easy to see why Pyongyang was becoming more agitated the more Washington brought up Libya.

President Trump said at the White House May 17, “The Libya model isn’t the model that we have at all when we’re thinking of North Korea.” (The Washington Post)

The George W. Bush administration framed Libya’s denuclearization move as resulting directly from the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and intelligence operations that cut off delivery routes for Libya’s nuclear weapons program. In an interview with CNN, Gaddafi himself indicated that the toppling of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq may have affected his decision to give up the program.

“In word and action, we have clarified the choices left to potential adversaries,” then-President Bush said when he announced the program’s dismantlement, indirectly referring to the Iraq War.

But analysts voiced criticism of the Iraq-Libya link at the time and suggested that Bush may have been trying to use success in Libya to defend his Iraq legacy. Gaddafi’s concessions, wrote Brookings Institution foreign policy analyst Martin Indyk in early 2004, were linked mostly to Libya’s economic crisis after years of sanctions and mismanagement.

“The only way out was to seek rapprochement with Washington,” Indyk wrote. While North Korea has long been able to rely on China, the United States was the dominant power in the Middle East in the early 2000s — leaving Gaddafi few choices.

Gaddafi’s search for allies and international rehabilitation ultimately led him to strike a more conciliatory tone with the United States, according to Indyk. “Fed up with pan-Arabism, he turned to Africa, only to find little support from old allies there. Removing the sanctions and their accompanying stigma became his priority,” the analyst wrote.

Multiple reports suggest Gaddafi’s willingness to negotiate an end to his nuclear weapons program was initially rebuffed.

When offering to give up the program in exchange for sanctions relief wasn’t sufficient, the Libyan leader looked for ways to settle his dispute with Britain over the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988 — a U.S. condition for any further talks. Overall, 270 people died in the attack, for which Gaddafi ultimately acknowledged responsibility in 2003, even though he maintained he had not ordered the bombing. To settle the conflict with Britain, Libya agreed to pay at least $5 million to the families of each of the 270 victims.

The settlement paved the way for the end of Libya’s nuclear weapons program and verification by international inspectors.

Four years after giving up his clandestine weapons program, Gaddafi appeared rehabilitated as he arrived in Paris for a five-day visit.

 French President Nicolas Sarkozy greets Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi on Dec. 10, 2007, at the Elysee Palace in Paris. (Francois Mori/AP) “If we don’t welcome countries that are starting to take the path of respectability, what can we say to those that leave that path?” said France’s then-president, Nicolas Sarkozy, defending the visit against critics.

When the Arab Spring began in 2011, however, Sarkozy was among the leaders behind a military intervention in Libya that helped topple Gaddafi — a scenario that would have been hard to imagine had Libya been in control of nuclear weapons at the time.

This post was first published May 17. It was updated May 24.

 

(3) Pence: "this will only end like the Libya Model ended if Kim Jong-un doesn't make a deal"

http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2018/05/21/vp-mike-pence-on-russia-probe-alleged-campaign-surveillance.html

TRANSCRIPT 2 days ago

VP Mike Pence on Russia probe, alleged campaign surveillance

Fox News

VP Mike Pence on Russia probe, alleged campaign surveillance

This is a rush transcript from "The Story," May 21, 2018. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

MARTHA MACCALLUM, FOX NEWS CHANNEL HOST: Great stuff, thank you so much, Brett. And breaking tonight, will North Korea summit actually happen? [...]

MACCALLUM: All right. So, you know, when you came out of lunch today with the president, was it your feeling, I think the summit is going to happen in June? [...]

PENCE: Well, there's no question, but look it's -- we hope for better. We really hope that Kim Jong-un will seize the opportunity to dismantle his nuclear weapons program and do so by peaceable means. You know, there were some talk about the Libya model last week. And you know, as the president made clear, you know, this will only end like the Libya Model ended if Kim Jong-un doesn't make a deal.

MACCALLUM: Some people saw that as a threat.

PENCE: Well, I think it's more of a fact. President Trump made it clear the United States of America under his leadership is not going to tolerate the regime in North Korea possessing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that threaten the United States and our allies. We've made it clear that we are continuing to bring economic and diplomatic pressure to bear on North Korea that all options are on the table to achieve that end. But that being said, we've seen great progress in recent months. Last month's inter-Korean summit where you saw the leaders of north and south meet at the Blue House, have that discussion. The reality is that we hope for a peaceable solution. The president remains open to a summit taking place and will continue to pursue that path even while we stand strong on the objective of denuclearization in the extreme pressure campaign that's underway today.

MACCALLUM: Yes, I mean, if it doesn't happen, the military option is basically back on the table.

PENCE: Well, it never came off, Martha. The truth is that President Trump has made it clear that this administration will not tolerate the regime in North Korea possessing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that threaten our people, that threaten the United States of America, that threaten our allies in the region. But we'll continue -- we'll continue to be open to the diplomatic path and that will be much of the discussion tomorrow with President Moon. [...]

 

(4) Bolton sabotaged North Korea Talks; demanded 'de-nuclearization' or NK would follow the 'Libya model'

http://www.moonofalabama.org/.m/2018/05/how-john-bolton-sabotaged-the-north-korea-summit-.html

May 24, 2018

How John Bolton Sabotaged The North Korea Talks

U.S. President Trump just canceled the planned summit with North Korea's chairman Kim Jong-Un. The two were supposed to meet on June 12 in Singapore. In a letter to Kim Jong-un, released to the media, Trump accused North Korea of hostile statements which, according to him, make the summit impossible:

Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I fell it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long planned meeting. Since the very first summit talk National Security Advisor John Bolton set impossibly high expectations for the results. Trump fell for it.

The various 'hostile statements' go back to remarks by Bolton who has for some time compared disarmament of North Korea to Libya. On April 29 Bolton again asserted that the 'complete de-nuclearization' of North Korea would follow the 'Libya model'. North Korea never really offered to 'de-nuclearize'. It rejects the 'Libya model' for two reasons:

When Libya made peace with the U.S. it was not a nuclear capable state which North Korea is. North Korea demands to be seen as equal to other nuclear armed states.

Libya's transfer of the little nuclear production equipment it had was followed a few years later by a full fledged war waged by France, the U.K. and the U.S. against Libya and its government under Muhammad Ghaddafi. The war destroyed the country. North Korea has no intent to allow a repeat of such treason.

North Korea pushed back against the Bolton statement. On May 16 the White House made amends by not endorsing what Bolton said:

Referring to the Libya comparison, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said Wednesday that she hadn't "seen that as part of any discussions so I'm not aware that that's a model that we're using. "I haven't seen that that's a specific thing. I know that that comment was made. There's not a cookie cutter model on how this would work."

But a day later Donald Trump was asked about the Libya comparison and he seemed to agree with it:

“The model, if you look at that model with Gaddafi, that was a total decimation. We went in there to beat him. Now that model would take place if we don’t make a deal, most likely. But if we make a deal, I think Kim Jong-un is going to be very, very happy.” We called that the 'art of the mafia deal': "Sign here or we will kill you." Signing under threat is something North Korea will never do.

The U.S. media played down Trump's talk as somewhat off-the-cuff. North Korea did not react to it. The summit train was still on track.

But on May 21 Vice President Pence revived the issue in an interview with Fox News:

PENCE: We really hope that Kim Jong-un will seize the opportunity to dismantle his nuclear weapons program and do so by peaceable means. You know, there were some talk about the Libya model last week. And you know, as the president made clear, you know, this will only end like the Libya Model ended if Kim Jong-un doesn't make a deal. MACCALLUM: Some people saw that as a threat.

PENCE: Well, I think it's more of a fact. President Trump made it clear the United States of America under his leadership is not going to tolerate the regime in North Korea possessing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that threaten the United States and our allies. We've made it clear that we are continuing to bring economic and diplomatic pressure to bear on North Korea that all options are on the table to achieve that end.

It was clear from the beginning that North Korea would not negotiate a complete de-nuclearization and would not talk while under such a threat. As the Washington Post noted: The more Pence and Trump say ‘Libya,’ the angrier North Korea gets.

The continuation of the Libya comparison was now a tactic to avoid the little prepared summit talks while blaming North Korea for the failure. The response from North Korea to Pence's remarks was quite salty but not overly hostile. Unlike Trump it did not threaten "total decimation":

Choe Son Hui, the DPRK's vice foreign minister, said she would put forward a suggestion to DPRK top leader Kim Jong Un for reconsidering the DPRK-U.S. summit scheduled for June 12 if the United States continues with hostile remarks and actions, according to the Korean Central News Agency. ... Calling the remarks of Pence "ignorant and stupid," she said that Pence should seriously consider the "terrible consequences of his words" before making such remarks.

"We could surmise more than enough what a political dummy he is as he is trying to compare the DPRK, a nuclear weapon state, to Libya that has simply installed a few items of equipment and fiddled around with them," she said.

Trump's cancellation letter refers to that statement.

The cancellation comes hours after North Korea, in the presence of a dozen international journalists, blew up several tunnels it had used for nuclear tests. This was a confidence building measure even while it is of little practical value. North Korea is mountainous and has several more tunnels it can use for further nuclear tests.

I now expect another phase of huffing and puffing from both sides. The U.S. will do more fly-bys with nuclear capable bombers and push for more sanctions. North Korea will respond with more nuclear and missile tests.

Trump had expected a fast victory and probably even a total de-nuclearization of North Korea. He dreamed of a Nobel Peace Prize. But North Korea had offered de-nuclearization only as a long term aspiration for the whole world. Giving up its nuclear capabilities would be suicidal as the U.S. will not honor any security guarantees it might give in exchange. Trump proved such when he canceled the JCPOA deal with Iran.

When the summit between North and South Korea took place on April 27, I had identified several potential spoilers for a disarmament and peace process. John Bolton was one of them. His introduction of the 'Libya model', which Trump and Pence who are both novices in international talks then took up, sabotaged the deal.

The largest known rare earth deposit of this world will continued to be out of Washington's reach.

Posted by b on May 24, 2018 at 11:59 AM

 

(5) Bolton’s Ridiculous Libya ‘Model’ for North Korea

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/boltons-ridiculous-Libya-model-for-north-korea/

By DANIEL LARISON

March 26, 2018, 12:24 PM

John Bolton’s desire to get North Korea to follow Libya’s example seems designed to derail diplomacy with Pyongyang:

On March 19, Bolton told Radio Free Asia that he hopes Trump will follow the Libya model in demanding that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons, and that it could be a “very short meeting” if Kim refuses. But the North Korean leader has regularly cited Libya as an example of why he needs nuclear weapons — to deter a U.S. invasion.

“It is such an implausible demand of North Korea that you set yourself up for failure,” Lindsey Ford, director of political-security affairs for the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington, said of Bolton’s proposal. “If that is your negotiating strategy, I don’t see any path to success.”

There is every reason to assume that Bolton wants to set the U.S. up to fail at the proposed summit, because he sees no value in any diplomatic exchange that doesn’t result in the other side’s surrender. He isn’t interested in a “path to success” because that would involve making concessions to North Korea that he is ideologically incapable of supporting. It is absurd to think that North Korea would agree to the same terms that Libya accepted 15 years ago when the former has a much more advanced program and already possesses nuclear weapons. Expecting that they would agree to disarm after seeing what happened to Gaddafi is just stupid.

More to the point, Gaddafi was not treated as a pariah by Western governments between the time he made the deal and the 2011 intervention. Western governments and companies started doing business with Libya again in exchange for the Libyan government’s agreement to abandon its programs and its support for terrorism. The Trump administration has shown no interest in working out a similar deal with Kim, and Bolton has publicly stated his opposition to giving North Korea anything. Libya received much more than Bolton is willing to offer North Korea, and that was offered to get Gaddafi to give up a much less advanced nuclear program. What are the chances that North Korea would make much larger concessions in return for no benefits? If they aren’t zero, they are so close as to be practically the same. Bolton’s belief that North Korea should give up everything in exchange for nothing proves beyond any doubt that he has no wish to find a diplomatic solution and is just looking for a pretext for conflict.

 

(6) Bolton on North Korea: "We have very much in mind the Libya model"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/john-bolton-us-using-Libya-model-for-north-korea-negotiations

John Bolton: U.S. Using ‘Libya Model’ for North Korea Negotiations

Despite North Korea citing Libya’s nuclear dismantlement and the 2011 civil war as a reason to keep its nukes, Trump's national security adviser sees it as a model.

Andrew Desiderio

04.29.18 1:15 PM ET

John Bolton, President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, said on Sunday that the United States is using the “Libya model” as it seeks to denuclearize the Korean peninsula—a process that eventually led to the destabilization of that country and the death of its dictator, and one that has drawn North Korea’s ire in the past.

“We have very much in mind the Libya model from 2003, 2004,” Bolton said on Fox News Sunday, referring to the African country’s decision to get rid of its nuclear weapons after negotiating with American officials. Seven years later, Libya found itself in a civil war that led to the death of its dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, after an intervention by the U.S. and its allies.

It’s unclear how Bolton’s message will be received by Kim Jong Un’s regime, which has already taken some steps—though none of them concrete or verifiable—toward denuclearization. Pyongyang has long cited U.S. interventions in countries such as Libya as a reason why it needs nuclear weapons.

As the civil war was intensifying there in 2011, North Korea said it was a mistake for Libya to agree to dismantle its nuclear program. A North Korea Foreign Ministry official described it at the time as “an invasion tactic to disarm the country.”

But Bolton said the Libya process could be an example for the Trump administration, particularly as it seeks hard evidence that Pyongyang is moving toward denuclearization.

“In the case of Libya, for example—and it’s a different situation in some respects—those negotiations were carried out in private. They were not known publicly,” Bolton said in a separate interview on CBS’ Face the Nation. “But one thing that Libya did that that led us to overcome our skepticism was that they allowed American and British observers into all their nuclear-related sites. So, it wasn’t a question of relying on international mechanisms. We saw them in ways we have never seen before.”

Bolton’s remarks came after South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met for the first time, during which the two countries committed to “complete denuclearization.” Additionally, South Korea said on Sunday that Kim had vowed to shut down a nuclear test site and had invited U.S. experts for inspections.

Bolton attributed those actions to Trump’s campaign of “maximum pressure” on North Korea through the use of sanctions and other measures to get Kim to the table. But he warned that North Korea had made similar promises in the past.

“President Trump is determined to see this opportunity through—hopeful that we can get a real breakthrough. But we’re not naive in the administration, and a lot’s going to ride on this meeting with Kim Jong Un,” he said.

The Trump administration is also winning praise from unlikely sources. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), a frequent Trump critic who has drawn the president’s ire on Twitter, suggested on Sunday that the White House’s strategy could be working.

“I think it’s more than fair to say that the combination of the president’s unpredictability, and indeed his bellicosity, had something to do with the North Koreans deciding to come to the table,” Schiff said on ABC’s This Week.

“But before the president takes too much credit or hangs out the ‘mission accomplished’ banner, he needs to realize we may go into a confrontational phase. And he may not want the full blame if things go south,” Schiff added.